tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post1895223634156081494..comments2023-06-20T04:55:27.614-04:00Comments on BEST: 2015.02.13 Gold Cycle Model ChartPaolohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18005061596776141679noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post-44160731061653119662015-02-15T23:39:22.354-05:002015-02-15T23:39:22.354-05:00I reckon the cycle model has picked up a gold bug....I reckon the cycle model has picked up a gold bug. Seriously, the cycle model simply shows what might be expected based on past cyclical behavior. If the gold price drops below $1200 this Spring, then reality always trumps models. However, prior to that, we should see a Z-score that stays >4 for some time. At which point, reality trumps the model, much like reality trumped the DJIA index model. C'est la vie with cyclical models, or any model for that matter, I am amused because I mentioned a while back that both gold and silver were ready for a fall, and at that point, I had the opposite criticism - I must be a gold killer, etc. This type of tech analysis is relatively dispassionate. It is what it is, and fundamentals, if they can be discerned in an unbiased fashion, don't enter into it.Paolohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18005061596776141679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post-16685243893604785642015-02-15T22:58:21.455-05:002015-02-15T22:58:21.455-05:00So when Gold falls below $1200 this spring, what t...So when Gold falls below $1200 this spring, what then?<br /><br />Whats your downside scenario, because I only see a gold-bug upside line?<br /><br />Higher USD will remain a problem for all $ asset classes for the next few years.<br />-Trading Sunsethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13291647197167518399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post-72666984475429372272015-02-15T18:16:08.195-05:002015-02-15T18:16:08.195-05:00Thank you, as always great work!
Diego.Thank you, as always great work!<br />Diego.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post-32465604970542192012015-02-14T17:07:14.742-05:002015-02-14T17:07:14.742-05:00thank you for the gold update. much needed. it wen...thank you for the gold update. much needed. it went down very heavily again... it quite surprised me. i have not anticipated such a fluctuatin. greets from germany. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post-35570756674614706992015-02-14T11:22:57.774-05:002015-02-14T11:22:57.774-05:00It is over 4, and there is pressure for reversion ...It is over 4, and there is pressure for reversion to the mean. However, unlike commodities, previous cyclical factors seem to be important, but are not the only factors influencing VIX. My caveat for the VIX cycle chart has been that the model, as structured, cannot capture very short term spikes in either direction, but only the general trend. Ideally I could balance the information with a neural network model I use, but that would require daily updates to better capture behavior.Paolohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18005061596776141679noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2002376076380960278.post-70213183855470403152015-02-14T00:46:30.437-05:002015-02-14T00:46:30.437-05:00Is Vix under similar pressure? Not sure what the Z...Is Vix under similar pressure? Not sure what the Z score is or how you calculate it but seems it would be at or above 4 for Vix.<br /><br />Comments?PayDayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00165480697513927357noreply@blogger.com