|2015.08.07 DJIA Cycle Model Chart|
The new DJIA cycle model seems to be performing well. I would caution readers that the previous DJIA models tested well on out-of-sample tests, but then managed to crash and burn. A reasonable interpretation is that from a historical business cycle perspective, dating to 1896. there is strong downward pressure on the DJIA. The first iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.
|2015.06.12 DJIA Cycle Model Chart|