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| 2015.03.13 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart |
Interpreting the model at this juncture reveals a few possibilities. In the immediate time frame, there is increasing upward pressure on the index price. However, it may also be that the peak might have been a couple of months early compared to the model prediction. Given the past performance of the model, taken together it suggests that Fall 2015 should encompass a low in the index curve, and another turning point. Previous iterations of the model are available on this blog.
Hi Paolo - is your VIX neural or forecast model unchanged from the last iteration? Based on a number of separate considerations, I'm expecting a turn within the next few weeks. I've no idea however how far any down move (if any) will progress and I'm aware of my bearish inclinations at this time.
ReplyDeleteA number of independent viewpoints from solar-lunar considerations (odd but seems to have statistical significance) to ending diagonals from both EW and traditional charting suggest a near-term high at least.
This along with other measures (sentiment, fundamentals) seem to be continually defied by market action, but I wonder if large players will liquidate ahead of rate rises, either now or later in the year.
Thanks again for sharing your work,
Mr. Anon