Friday, March 9, 2012

2012.03.09 Weekly DJIA $ Gold $ Silver Predictions

Very short time frame charts

The structural models for gold and silver seem to be working out well - but the DJIA structural model is still, to put it kindly, in flux.  A non-technical explanation is that while these models are adaptive up to a point - that is they can  modify their parameters with new data - the DJIA model is treating the 45 degree angle spike off the predictive curve as short term volatility because of the non-linear signature of the time series at that point.  You don't need fancy math to see that the texture of the time series at the point where the actual DJIA curve jumps off the predicted curve is very different from the rest of the curve - and this is occurring at different time scales.  Which does not mean the model is correct, it is just an interesting development.

I hope everyone has a good weekend - and if you are close to the poles, enjoy the nice Aurora Borealis/Australis!

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