Friday, October 28, 2011

2011.10.28 Interim Gold Long $ Short Term

From this model's perspective, this is an almost six-sigma event.

This is so weird that I'm going to hold off judging whether the model is valid.  A week or two and the answer should be obvious. Maybe.

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Wednesday, October 26, 2011

2011.10.26 Interim Gold $ Silver Short Term

Both of these models have reached extreme values of disparity between the actual price and the predicted price. Based on information from a completely different model for SLV I use to guide investment stance,  my bet would be that silver will be the one that breaks down first but GLD is still in "buy mode" as of this moment.The concordance of the two models from the two time series supports validity, or the same structural flaw is present in the two models. This is unlikely but....

So, the possibilities remain:

  • the model is valid (look out below! soon!)
  • we are experiencing a "six-sigma" event but the model is valid (look out below, at some point)
  • the model is not valid 
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