Saturday, April 1, 2017

2017.03.31 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2017.03.31 Silver Cycle Model Chart


















The lack of any phase shift suggests that the peak in May/June has a high probability.  Note that the magnitude of the peak has changed, but the timing is relatively consistent from the past iteration. The previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.

2017.02.10 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, March 5, 2017

2017.03.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2017.03.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart

















The gold cycle model continues to predict higher prices for the metal, however, there is still some right phase shift of the predictive curve, which has also projected a decrease in the magnitude of the price going forwards. Meanwhile, the GDXJ medium term model has shifted into sell mode on 2017.02.27, however, the medium term model for GLD is still on buy. This is consistent with a long base formation we see in the gold price over the past year. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.




2017.02.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, February 26, 2017

2017.02.24 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2017.02.24 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart




The XOI.X model predictive curve continues to shift to the right, and suggests that much lower prices are highly unlikely, while pressure is building for a rise going forwards.  Astute readers with good memories will realize this is the same analysis as provided from the model run about a month ago shown below. Also of note is that a medium term model of USO continues to remain in sell mode, as shown here.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.




2017.02.01 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart
 

Saturday, February 11, 2017

2017.02.10 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2017.02.10 Silver Cycle Model Chart

















The silver cycle model is performing well, and previously suggested a rise in price based on the inflection point at the beginning of 2017.  While there may be some continued right phase shift in the predictive curve, the model is calling for another inflection point in late Spring of 2017 which based on past performance could extend into Summer or early Fall.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.




2016.12.30 Silver Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, February 5, 2017

2017.02.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2017.02.03 Gold Cycle Model Chart

















The gold cycle model continues to predict higher prices for the metal going forwards.  The end of 2016 may have seen an inflection point if the model is valid.  Both the GDXJ and GLD medium-term trade models are aligned, as they have been in buy mode since the end of 2016, which lends additional support to the hypothesis. You can go to the medium term model out page on the link above or by clicking here. The medium-term models are updated on Fridays, and I will post any changes that occur on the weekend.  The previous gold cycle model is shown below and here on the blog.


2017.01.06 Gold Cycle Model Chart

Thursday, February 2, 2017

2017.02.01 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

2017.02.01 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

















The XOI.X model predictive curve continues to shift to the right, and suggests that much lower prices are highly unlikely, while pressure is building for a rise going forwards.  That said, my medium-term trading model for USO went short on December 21, 2016 and continues short.  I update it on Fridays, so if it changes, I will post a comment here.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below.


2016.12.27 XOI.X Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, January 8, 2017

2017.01.06 Gold Cycle Model Chart

2017.01.06 Gold Cycle Model Chart

















The gold cycle model suggests rising prices for the metal into 2017. The model may continue to shift the predictive curve to the right.  Even if it does, the sharp slope of the predictive curve suggests that the price should not drop significantly going forwards.  I have seen predictions for a much lower price for the metal, some well below $1000 which according to the model would be very unlikely.  Whether the model remains somewhat useful going forwards will be determined in the next few months.  My pattern recognition neural GDXJ medium term trading model went positive at the end of the 2016, so that it is aligned with the cycle model, at least for now.Below I show the previous iteration of the model, also here on the blog.


2016.12.02 Gold Cycle Model Chart

Sunday, January 1, 2017

2016.12.30 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2016.12.30 Silver Cycle Model Chart


















The silver cycle model shows both a phase shift to the right as well a change in magnitude.  If the model is valid, we should continue to see a continued rise in price, along with the usual volatility, if the price resolves as it did in June, 2016. A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog.


2016.12.02 Silver Cycle Model Chart