Saturday, June 27, 2015

2015.06.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2015.06.28 Silver Cycle Model Chart


















The silver cycle model is performing relatively well, and suggests increasing upward pressure on silver prices beginning in the August 2015 time frame. As noted previously on the blog and below, the silver price did drop in accordance with the model prediction.



2015.06.04 Silver Cycle Model Chart

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Paolo...gold currently languishing at a z-score of around -4/-5 on your model? The silver reversal timeline looks more like mid-july? Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Hmmm ... thinking of the divergence between the gold and silver projections, I would like to suggest that some fusion may be closer to the truth. From a variety of other methodologies, from EW to conventional TA and cycles, I'm still expecting gold to fall to below $1100 inline with a low in crude oil and "maybe" a peak in equities around September.

It all seems to hinge on the expected Fed rate hike in September, though the methods I've looked at don't explicitly take that into account (or should they given the massive biases introduced). Even the venerable although slightly permanently-bearish Solar Cycles is open to a further rally of sort into later this year.

I do however wonder if indeed rising US rates is all that bad for US equities. Perhaps it could be seen as a sign of (relative) US economic strength that rates could be raised. The short trade seems too apparent and well-expected by the "market" as a whole, so a continuing bull market (however distasteful, disagreeable or even apparently illogical) is a possibility.

Perplexing times ahead,

Mr. Anon