Saturday, January 10, 2015

2015.01.09 VIX Cycle Model Chart

2015.01.09 VIX Cycle Model Chart

















The VIX cycle model, while it does not capture short-term spikes in VIX seems to have predicted a smoothed rise in VIX beginning in the third quarter of 2014. The Z-score approaching +2 sigma suggests continued pressure for rising values through 2015. It may be a coincidence, but the VIX curve now parallels the silver price pseudocycles which also emerged for 2015.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog. I would also note that comparing and contrasting the two charts, one can see that timing of longer-term directional change is better predicted than price magnitude.

2014.09.12 VIX Cycle Model Chart

4 comments:

rotrot said...

your models have proven to be extremely accurate...keep up the great work!

Permabear Doomster said...

Provocative.

Certainly, things are a little more choppy lately.

Maybe things can a little wild in the early summer... typically weak time.

Anonymous said...

Outstanding! :-) Kudos to you sir for sharing your models with little guys like us.

Mr. Anon

Anonymous said...

So what are you saying?
That the sp500 will rise from now?