Saturday, January 10, 2015

2015.01.09 VIX Cycle Model Chart

2015.01.09 VIX Cycle Model Chart

The VIX cycle model, while it does not capture short-term spikes in VIX seems to have predicted a smoothed rise in VIX beginning in the third quarter of 2014. The Z-score approaching +2 sigma suggests continued pressure for rising values through 2015. It may be a coincidence, but the VIX curve now parallels the silver price pseudocycles which also emerged for 2015.  A previous iteration of the model is shown below and here on the blog. I would also note that comparing and contrasting the two charts, one can see that timing of longer-term directional change is better predicted than price magnitude.

2014.09.12 VIX Cycle Model Chart


rotrot said...

your models have proven to be extremely accurate...keep up the great work!

Permabear Doomster said...


Certainly, things are a little more choppy lately.

Maybe things can a little wild in the early summer... typically weak time.

Anonymous said...

Outstanding! :-) Kudos to you sir for sharing your models with little guys like us.

Mr. Anon

Anonymous said...

So what are you saying?
That the sp500 will rise from now?