|2014.04.11 VIX Cycle Model|
The VIX cycle model suggests higher VIX prices are to be expected over the next year. However, astute readers will notice that as shown above, the turning points are better predicted than the magnitude of the change at those points. Right now, according to the model, the VIX is below the predicted curve, and a very short term upward correction, as happened after previous positive and negative spikes, is very likely. Readers may note I lifted some of the above text from a previous post from January, 2014, shown here. The model has not changed much at all. Here it is below.
|2014.01.24 VIX Cycle Model|