Thursday, November 28, 2013

2013.11.27 DJIA Cycle Model Chart and Z-score




















According to this model, the DJIA is in bubble territory, at least as far as historical cycles that were used to construct it. The model may be defective, or it may be revealing a severe anomaly in the markets, as occurred several times in the past which all resolved to the downside.  To illustrate this point, I have placed a line at the current Z-score and extended to 1900. I look forward to the performance of the DJIA in December to resolve the issue.

No comments: