Structural equation modeling for objective financial forecasts
Hello Paolo,Have you noticed that your XOI predictions are highly correlated with the S&P 500? In fact, your prior XOI predictions seem to foretell the SPX rather well. The projected peak in 2014 would seem to match expectations of Fed tapering.The DJIA is an odd index due to the way it is calculated through absolute prices changes. The relatively low number of stocks (30) might be an error factor too, given that a few components were swapped out recently (perhaps creating "new" behaviours).Anon
Superb, I am right on that outlook.Gold/Silver to see renewed weakness across 2014/early 2015..before a multi-year low is in, and then a major 5-7 year surge.Upside would be at least Gold $2500/3000, if not double that.-For the gold bugs out there, we are indeed looking a fair few years of waiting.
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