Econocasts

Saturday, March 24, 2012

2012.03.23 Weekly DJIA $ Gold $ Silver










































Very Short Time Frame Predictions


















































 
 The Gold model has been working well, now  predicting significantly lower prices over the next month. $1450 +/- a lot looks possible.

The Silver model is also working well, suggesting some upward pressure on Silver - to the  upside of $35/oz in the first few weeks of April.

The DJIA model is probably broken - but I will continue to run it and post it so I can look like a genius if the DJIA drops 2000 points in a short time frame.  I don't have time to even think about constructing another DJIA model for at least  the next few months.

The DJIA model insists on treating the current  actual price curve as "noise" while the prediction curve bounds downwards. I will explain this briefly. If the model detects highly non-random time series behavior during a window of analysis, it weighs those points less than if the time series is exhibiting its usual and customary non-linear signatures. So - as long as the DJIA time series that "takes off" the predictive curve continues to exhibit an odd signature, the model will continue to discount them.  You don't have to be a mathematician to appreciate that the "texture" of the time series of the DJIA is much smoother than usual. That is exactly what is being translated into something the model can handle. This is not an apology for a bad model - it is what it is. There were very good reasons to include that module in the model.  As long as the model continues to run - I'll keep posting it.

Have a nice early Spring or Fall week!

Visit econocasts.net for free sample trading model downloads. 

Friday, March 9, 2012

2012.03.09 Weekly DJIA $ Gold $ Silver Predictions































Very short time frame charts






































The structural models for gold and silver seem to be working out well - but the DJIA structural model is still, to put it kindly, in flux.  A non-technical explanation is that while these models are adaptive up to a point - that is they can  modify their parameters with new data - the DJIA model is treating the 45 degree angle spike off the predictive curve as short term volatility because of the non-linear signature of the time series at that point.  You don't need fancy math to see that the texture of the time series at the point where the actual DJIA curve jumps off the predicted curve is very different from the rest of the curve - and this is occurring at different time scales.  Which does not mean the model is correct, it is just an interesting development.

I hope everyone has a good weekend - and if you are close to the poles, enjoy the nice Aurora Borealis/Australis!

Visit econocasts.net for free sample trading model downloads. 

Friday, March 2, 2012

2012.03.02 Weekly DJIA $ Gold $ Silver Predictions































Ultrashort charts





































The precious metals seem to be within predicted ranges.  With respect to the DJIA, the structural model  is doing its own thing, whatever that might be.  It's funny to have a better handle on short term moves of gold and silver as opposed to the  DJIA.

Visit econocasts.net for free sample trading model downloads.