Sunday, January 1, 2012

2012.01.01 Monthly Long Term DJIA $ Gold $ Silver














































Index / Actual / Predicted / Z-score

DJIA / 12217.56 / 11062.13 / -2.18
Gold / 1574.50 / 1549.91 / -0.71
Silver / 2818 / 2823 / 0.12

If one were to believe the Z-score, it seems the DJIA is under more downward pressure than Gold or Silver. I hope everyone reading has a healthy and productive New Year!

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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Samuel “Bud” Kress, founder of the Kress Cycles, states in his report "Crisis High 2011-2014" that 2014 will be the bottom of the 120-year Grand Super Cycle. Just another heavy-hitter to backup your charts.

However, he does state the

Have a happy new year.

Source: http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/clif-droke/crisis-high-2011

Image: http://static.safehaven.com/authors/droke/17522.png

-Zero_Sum

Paolo said...

Thanks Zero_Sum. Stripped of their fractal phase permutations, the three largest cycles in the DJIA model are in years:
98.4 +/- 0.3;
52.1 +/- 0.2;
35.0 +/- 0.1

I'll have to see what general techniques Kress uses to decompose the time series. At least the three are in the same ballpark.

What is interesting is that the synodic period relationship between the 98.4 year cycle and the 52.1 year cycle is 110.7 years, so I'm wondering if the 120 year cycle is one of the banes of cycle analysis - namely a pseudo-cycle built out of two (or more!) smaller cycles. In any case, if it works it works...