Structural equation modeling for objective financial forecasts
On the subject of the current Depression:Steve Keen on BBC HARDtalk:http://www.spadacapital.com/?articleID=2290Also on YouTube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGkmgnprrIU&feature=player_embedded#!
Thanks, I just listened to the interview. He raises some interesting points regarding the intermediary relationship banks hold between savers and debtors. I wonder if he has looked at the ratio of savings to public and private debt debt over the past 40 years and its relationship to GDP growth. In the US, the "Bank of banks" ie Fed seems to have set in motion policies that reduce the incentive to save while increasing the incentive to use debt to enter risk-on trades in the quixotic quest for yield, precisely because the "safe yield" is close to zero because of the built-in disincentive to save. A feedback process that mathematically reaches a singularity.I suspect his ideas will gain traction, for better or for worse depending on one's economic stand, as debt default roils the global economies. The amazing coverage for the recent 10-year UST bond sale - rivaling that of post-9/11, reveals the run-for-cover panic even while the equities markets hope for the best.
Bi-Modal World??Yes and No; Black and White; two eyes, ears, arms, legs, sides to every story. Two Testaments, male and female. And then there is this:http://www.thetrader.se/2011/12/15/what-if-it-is-a-bimodal-world/
If I had a penny for every loss function that died in my hands....Meanwhile I'm waiting for faster CPUs so I can try bootstrap resampling instead of ASSuming normal or lognormal error.
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