Wednesday, December 28, 2011

2011.12.28 Interim Short Term DJIA $ Gold $ Silver
























Index / Actual / Predicted / Z

DJIA / 12151.41 / 11279.06 / -1.47
Gold / 1584.00 / 1503.54 / -2.24
Silver / 2865 / 2813 / -0.50

I guess I might as well enjoy when the PM curves are closely convergent - since it probably will not last too long!

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2 comments:

El Viejo said...

Models behaving badly (and no she is not from Hollywood)
http://www.econmatters.com/2011/12/models-behaving-badly-nature-of-beast.html

Paolo said...

That was a good read - it is consistent with what I found in my early explorations in financial time series analysis which provided a heuristic for later work. When a time series such as DJ price is examined as a "walk" with the result being a sum of -1,0,1 based on whether the price decreases, unchanged, or increased from the previous day - the number of + days was only slightly larger than the number of - days, but on average, the advances were of a larger magnitude.