Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Cycle Models: DJIA Long $ Short Term Predictions



















Today, the DJIA actual price curve has moved almost 2 standard deviation units from the model curve, so here it is for the record.  This is an extreme value suggesting that a correction, which would bring the two curves together, is probably not far off.  Or this model is broken.  I'd vote for the former, but I'm biased.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I like how you added commentary to charts recently, it adds a bit of a personal touch. As always, thanks for the free public service.

Anonymous said...

cthe dow correction to what level?

Paolo said...

you're welcome. I like to contribute web content as well as consuming it.

I don't understand the 7:12 post, sorry.

Rajeev Bharol said...

Thanks a lot.

Anonymous said...

Sympathetic and interesting

Paolo said...

Thanks Rajeev, I'm happy you find the info helpful.

On today's (2011.10.12) AM price action on the DJIA, where a quick run of the generating function now shows one of the widest historical spreads between the actual price curve and the predicted price curve. Expected price = 9785 and actual price is 11580. Amazing. This is beginning to look like 2008. Or the model is failing. I'll vote for the former.

Paolo said...

Simpatico e interessante?